The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has completed its Article Four consultation for Suriname, warning that recent fiscal and monetary slippages have eroded earlier gains in macroeconomic stability as the country approaches a major transition to large scale oil production.

According to the IMF, the country’s economic growth is slowing, largely due to a decline in gold production. 

While Suriname made significant progress in restoring macroeconomic stability in recent years, policy slippages during two thousand and twenty five reduced cash buffers, weakened the currency and pushed inflation back into double digits. 

Gross public debt is estimated to have risen to one hundred and six percent of gross domestic product, mainly as a result of a liability management operation.

The IMF estimates that the current account deficit exceeded thirty percent of gross domestic product, driven largely by imports related to offshore oil field development, which were mostly financed through foreign direct investment.

Looking ahead, non natural resource growth is projected to reach four point seven percent in two thousand and twenty six, supported by positive sentiment linked to the oil sector. 

Oil field development, alongside relatively stable gold production, is expected to support economic growth of around four percent through two thousand and twenty eight. 

Once offshore oil production begins, growth is projected to rise sharply to around thirty percent.

The IMF cautioned, however, that downside risks remain significant. 

Further policy slippages could undermine macroeconomic stability, while delays in reforms could weaken the country’s ability to manage its economic transition. 

Over the longer term, additional offshore oil and gas discoveries represent a major upside risk.

Executive Directors acknowledged the progress achieved under the Fund supported programme that concluded in March 2025, but stressed that renewed commitment to prudent and credible macroeconomic policies is now critical. 

They emphasised the importance of strengthening institutions and governance to safeguard stability and support inclusive growth, noting that technical support from the Fund and other development partners would remain important.

Directors underscored the need for fiscal consolidation, particularly in two thousand and twenty six, to contain foreign exchange pressures, reduce inflation and rebuild financial buffers. 

While recent liability management measures provided short term liquidity, they agreed that significant fiscal adjustment is required. Recommended measures included raising the primary surplus while protecting priority investment in human capital, resuming reductions in electricity subsidies, restraining the public sector wage bill, broadening the tax base and improving tax administration through digitalisation.

The IMF also highlighted the importance of strong institutions to manage future oil revenues, urging full and timely implementation of newly passed public financial management and Sovereign Wealth Fund legislation to ensure transparency and accountability.

On monetary policy, Directors stressed the need to maintain a firm focus on price stability. 

They recommended bringing reserve money back to target levels through open market operations and supported plans to transition to a new monetary policy framework. 

Exchange rate flexibility was also encouraged, with foreign exchange interventions to be limited to cases of disorderly market conditions.

The Fund called for enhanced financial sector resilience through stronger bank risk management practices and increased supervisory monitoring, including of non bank financial institutions. Governance reforms were also highlighted as essential, with Directors urging amendments to the anti corruption law, operationalisation of the procurement law, stronger oversight of state owned enterprises and further improvements to anti money laundering and counter terrorist financing frameworks.

The IMF indicated that it looks forward to continued engagement with Suriname under the Post Financing Assessment framework. The next Article Four consultation is expected to take place within the standard twelve month cycle.