The United States’ National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is forecasting a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season for 2026, citing the expected development of El Niño conditions during the months ahead.

In its official outlook released Thursday, NOAA said there is a 55 per cent chance of a below-normal hurricane season, a 35 per cent chance of a near-normal season and just a 10 per cent chance of an above-normal season.

The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1 to November 30.

Forecasters are predicting between eight and 14 named storms this year, with three to six expected to strengthen into hurricanes. Of those, one to three could become major hurricanes classified as Category 3, 4 or 5 systems.

NOAA said it has a 70 per cent confidence level in the forecast ranges.

An average Atlantic hurricane season typically produces 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said NOAA and the National Weather Service are prepared to provide real-time forecasts and warnings throughout the season.

“With the most advanced forecast modelling and hurricane tracking technologies, NOAA and the National Weather Service are prepared to deliver real-time storm forecasts and warnings,” Lutnick said.

NOAA Administrator Dr Neil Jacobs said the agency is increasingly using artificial intelligence-based weather models, drones and next-generation satellite data to improve forecasting accuracy.

According to NOAA, the main factor expected to suppress storm activity this year is the anticipated development and strengthening of El Niño conditions during the hurricane season.

El Niño typically reduces hurricane formation in the Atlantic Basin by increasing wind shear across the region.

However, forecasters noted that slightly warmer-than-average Atlantic Ocean temperatures and weaker trade winds could still support tropical cyclone development.

National Weather Service Director Ken Graham warned that despite the lower forecast, residents in hurricane-prone areas should not become complacent.

“Although El Niño’s impact in the Atlantic Basin can often suppress hurricane development, there is still uncertainty in how each season will unfold,” Graham said.

“That is why it’s essential to review your hurricane preparedness plan now. It only takes one storm to make for a very bad season.”

NOAA stressed that the seasonal outlook does not predict where storms may form or make landfall, as those outcomes depend on shorter-term weather patterns throughout the season.